Jasmine Crockett has a simple test for whether Republicans are truly scared of James Talarico flipping Texas.
She is not reading the polls first. She is watching where the money goes.
The Texas Democrat sounded deeply skeptical Tuesday that Talarico, her former primary rival, is actually on track to beat Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Senate race Democrats hope could shake control of Washington.
“I don’t know,” Crockett told NBC News when asked whether Talarico could turn Texas blue. “I watch money.”
Her point was that the national party committees are not behaving like Texas has become the next major battlefield.
🚨UNEARTHED
James Talarico brags about harboring criminal illegal aliens from deportation at his church:
"Our church was really active in LGBTQ rights in the 90s…and then in the 2010s, again stirred some controversy by housing an undocumented family…" pic.twitter.com/ZTjh9u2lyu
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 9, 2026
“When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced,” Crockett told NBC reporter Sahil Kapur.
“But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia.”
“That’s where they’re fighting, and national Democrats have not decided to dump money into Texas either,” she added.
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“I look at: where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand? Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing.”
That answer cut against the wave of public polling that has given Talarico a burst of attention.
A Fox News poll released recently had Talarico leading Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent among registered voters.
Texas Public Opinion Research showed him up 45 percent to 40 percent among likely voters.
The public numbers give Democrats something to cheer, but Crockett’s argument is that private spending decisions tell a colder story.
If either party truly believed Texas was ready to move, she suggested, the national money would already be there.
Crockett made clear that she is not ready to treat Talarico’s polling lead as proof of a winnable race.
Since losing the Democratic primary to Talarico, the Dallas-area congresswoman has repeatedly resisted pressure from Democrats urging her to campaign for him. She told NBC she will decide later which races deserve her help.
“I won’t get on the ground to really start to feel it until maybe end of September, October, as I start to dig into which races I’m going to help out in, the races that I really feel like we can win,” Crockett said.
Crockett blamed her defeat on racism in July, saying Talarico did not need her standing next to him onstage.
“The reality is that there was a lot of races, not a lot, it was racist. It was a racist race. It is what it is, right? But we live in America as y’all are celebrating 250, okay? We know what this country is,” Crockett said.
She argued that her real contribution to Texas Democrats was visible elsewhere on the ballot.
“The best thing that I can do for James Talarico isn’t me standing on a stage with him,” Crockett continued. “It is the fact that I endorsed five candidates in the runoff who all happen to be black men in the state of Texas and every single one of them won.”
Talarico is also entering the general election with more than one political fight around him.
The Senate candidate has struggled to energize black voters while facing criticism over his views on Christianity, transgender children and the American flag.
He has also refused to answer questions about his residency and voting history, even as his campaign has pressed Paxton over allegations about the Republican’s conduct.
Talarico’s campaign promoted an ad on X accusing Paxton of dodging scrutiny.
“Ken Paxton is refusing to answer basic questions about his corruption and criminal record.
Texans are demanding answers. What are you hiding, @KenPaxtonTX?”
But reporting from The Texas Tribune and ProPublica gave Paxton a counterattack.
The outlets reported that Talarico bought a home about six miles from his parents’ address in June 2022, then voted in five elections using his parents’ address before updating his registration in September 2024.
Talarico’s campaign declined to answer when he began living in the home he bought, citing “credible threats” from “right-wing actors” trying to locate him and his family.
The Texas Tribune and ProPublica noted that Texas law requires voters to register where they live. Texas ethics attorney Andrew Cates described the residency provisions as “broad and vague,” saying a prosecution would require proof that a voter knowingly or intentionally violated the law.
Paxton accused Talarico of election fraud after the reports raised questions about whether he had met residency requirements before running for his Texas House seat.
“James Talarico has proven he has zero regard for Texans and the rule of law,” Paxton said. “He’s been lying to voters and shamelessly committing election fraud to hold onto power.”
Talarico’s campaign has maintained that he lives and is registered at the north Austin home he purchased in 2022.
The residency questions came up again this week when Talarico spoke in Arlington. CBS News Texas reported that he did not take questions from reporters after delivering a policy speech.
Not every Democrat is echoing Crockett’s doubts.
Former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio told Fox News’s Sean Hannity that Talarico’s focus on economic concerns could put Republicans in a difficult position.
“When you listen to Talarico, he is going after billionaires. He’s saying they’re not paying their fair share of taxes. He is talking about commonsense kitchen table issues, which his opponent isn’t,” de Blasio said.
He argued that Democrats become more dangerous when they center those concerns.
“This is the worst nightmare for Republicans that Democrats actually get their act together and talk about the kitchen table,” de Blasio added.
Talarico has leaned into the same class-war message on his website, where he says “the biggest divide in this country is not left vs. right” and describes the sharper divide as “top vs. bottom.”
“Billionaires want us looking left and right at each other instead of looking up at them,” Talarico added. “The people at the top work so hard to keep us angry and divided because our unity is a threat to their wealth and power.”
